Since starting this project a couple of months ago, I’ve enjoyed diving into the polls in an attempt to determine who might win today’s presidential election. Now that Election Day has arrived, a guess seems an appropriate.
First, the guess: Biden wins with between 285–310 electoral votes, a safe margin but not a landslide. I think the country remains too divided for a landslide. Now, my reasoning.
Biden needs fewer swing states to swing his way.
The Real Clear Politics “toss-up” electoral map as of this morning gives Biden 216 solid or leaning electoral votes, while Trumps has only 125 in states considered secure. The electoral votes available in twelve toss-up states (plus Nebraska and Maine’s splits) total 197; those are votes still in play, at least theoretically. Here are those states, their EC votes, and the lean per the latest polling averages:
Arizona (11)—too close
Florida (29)—leaning Trump
Georgia (16)—too close
Iowa (6)—solid Trump
Michigan (16)—solid Biden
Minnesota (10)—solid Biden
Nevada (6)—leaning Biden
North Carolina (15)—too close
Ohio (18)—leaning Trump
Pennsylvania (20)—too close
Texas (38)—leaning Trump
Wisconsin (10)—leaning Biden
Trump’s road to victory is more narrow than Biden’s.
A little math shows Biden with the quickest and easiest path to victory. Needing only 54 electoral votes to reach 270 and secure the election, if he wins the four states above that are solid or leaning his way (per polling averages), he would gain 42 additional electoral votes totaling 258, making it necessary for Trump to win nearly every remaining state. If Biden surprises by flipping one electoral-heavy state Trump won in 2016 (Georgia or Ohio, for example) and wins his solid/leaning states, he’ll take the presidency.
How difficult is Trump’s road? If he wins Texas and Pennsylvania and Florida and Ohio, he’s still short at 230. Getting to 270 is not impossible; but improbable. Indeed his is a narrow way.
Biden does not have the “dislike” factor of Hillary Rodham Clinton.
HRC was the worst possible candidate for president Democrats could field, and not only in 2016. For two decades Fox News and the conservative news ecosystem made a cottage industry of bashing Hillary Clinton: the Clinton Foundation, Benghazi, Obama, Globalists, and “Clinton’s emails.” Millions did not like her and untold numbers hate her until this day. It matters not whether the stories and scandals are even true.
Biden does not have this problem. The kinds of assaults that stuck to HRC like skunk-spray have not affected Biden as severely. As late as yesterday, Biden’s favorability rating far exceeds Trump’s (51-43), while his unfavorable rating lags Trump by even more (45-55). Not only is Biden more favorable than Trump, he is more favorable in 2020 than was Clinton in 2016. More people like Biden; more people will vote for him.
The electorate is trending toward the Democratic Party.
Win or lose today, there is reason to believe Donald Trump could be the last Republican president. Swaths of minority and young voters are avoiding Trump now and will eschew his lingering effects on the party in the future. No prominent Republican—save former-GOP representative Justin Amash—consistently and effectively distanced themselves from Trump, his reputation will stay with them long after he is gone. From Axios, here’s SurveyMonkey chief research officer Jon Cohen:
It’s certainly striking, when you look across all of these states together, how sweeping it is, how Democratic Gen Z and the Millennials are…Trump still has a chance this cycle, but if these numbers hold up over the next several elections, it’s going to be increasingly difficult for Republicans to win.
And professor David Faris writes, 2020 is the year of the demographic apocalypse for the GOP:
For years there has been a demographic apocalypse coming for the Republican Party, and it looks set to arrive in 2020. The GOP has been losing the youngest voters by double digits in elections since 2004. Not only do these voters make up about a 20-year-long bloc of Democratic leaners and stalwarts, they are now aging into higher turnout rates and political power.
Young Americans are on track to surpass the record-setting 2008 youth voting numbers, with 63 percent said they will “definitely be voting” compared with 47 percent during the 2016 election. North Carolina youth have turned out in record numbers to cast their ballots early. From The Independent:
Some 462,000 people between the ages of 18 and 29—an alliance of Generation Z and millennials—have already voted. That has more than doubled their share of the electorate since the last election.
NPR, which asked in September if young people would turn out to vote, in October found an answer:
[In 2018,] young voters turned out in historic numbers and were part of the coalition that helped to elect a Democratic House of Representatives. And with days until Election Day, signs have emerged that young voters are poised for another cycle of record turnout.
The year 2020 has featured repeated, loud calls from former GOP-insiders to burn down the party in order to save it. I differ with them, believing the party has already been reduced to embers, a victim of arson from the inside. There is no raw material to use. Today, Biden wins and the GOP never recovers.
Of course, I could be wrong.
fides quaerens intellectum
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